2018 Lee County Florida Market Update
This 2018 Lee County Florida Market Update was presented to the SWFL REIA at the January 2018 General Meeting.
By: Jeff Tumbarello, Broker/Owner Steelbridge Realty LLC, Director SWFLREIA
Data sourced from:
- Residential Data is from MLS.
- Cape Coral Permit Number from the City of Cape Coral.
- Retiree Data is from Census.
- Trended with Microsoft Excel.
- Unless otherwise stated, charts contain all Residential assets.
- Disclosure: My work is done for me and shared with you.
2018 Lee County Florida Market Update: Lee County Metrics
Volume and sales counts 1/1 thru 12/31
| 2016 | 2017 | DIFF | |
| Volume | $5,353,003,594 | $5,571,557,529 | 4.08% |
| Counts | 19,403 | 19,410 | 0.04% |
The increase in Volume and sales counts are significant. This is from the stellar year the market was having before Hurricane Irma.
Volume and sales counts 1/1 thru 12/31
| 2016 | 2017 | DIFF | |
| Volume | $5,353,003,594 | $5,571,557,529 | 4.08% |
| Counts | 19,403 | 19,410 | 0.04% |
Cash Sales Percentage 1/1 thru 12/31
| 2016 | 2017 | DIFF | |
| Cash Sales | 8,112 | 7,976 | -1.68% |
| Cash % | 41.81% | 41.09% | -1.71% |
The percentage of cash sales is higher than the national average and the state of Florida average. That inherently gives the market stability.
Distressed Sales 1/1 thru 12/31
| 2016 | 2017 | DIFF | |
| Distressed | 6.08% | 3.75% | -38.36% |
The lack of distressed sales indicates that there is very little bank-owned inventory.
Sales Counts by Property Type:
| 2016 | 2017 | DIFF | |
| Single Family | 12,826 | 12,490 | -2.62% |
| Villa Attached | 789 | 809 | 2.53% |
| Low Rise (1-3) | 3,343 | 3,461 | 3.53% |
| Mid Rise (4-7) | 677 | 709 | 4.73% |
| Townhouse | 703 | 739 | 5.12% |
| High Rise (8+) | 419 | 522 | 24.58% |
Pricing by Property Type:
| Average Price 2016 | Average Price 2017 | Difference | |
| Single Family | $302,610 | $319,721 | 5.65% |
| Villa Attached | $202,180 | $206,792 | 2.28% |
| Low Rise (1-3) | $202,530 | $205,990 | 1.71% |
| Mid Rise (4-7) | $262,797 | $266,539 | 1.42% |
| Townhouse | $188,577 | $187,110 | -0.78% |
| High Rise (8+) | $547,304 | $512,338 | -6.39% |
2018 Lee County Florida Market Update: What submarkets are growing?
| Volume | Counts | Average Price | |
| Fort Myers | $1,538,030,243 | 6247 | $246,203 |
| Cape Coral | $1,488,331,823 | 5621 | $264,781 |
| Bonita Springs | $722,896,260 | 1701 | $424,983 |
| Estero | $454,051,162 | 1302 | $348,734 |
| Lehigh Acres | $329,458,901 | 2106 | $156,438 |
| Sanibel | $281,736,498 | 317 | $888,759 |
| Fort Myers Beach | $235,098,215 | 464 | $506,677 |
| North Fort Myers | $170,726,157 | 963 | $177,286 |
| Captiva | $83,648,670 | 79 | $1,058,844 |
| Miromar Lakes | $69,281,885 | 71 | $975,801 |
| St. James City | $42,259,442 | 154 | $274,412 |
| Alva | $32,531,850 | 132 | $246,453 |
| Bokeelia | $28,890,039 | 112 | $257,947 |
| Punta Gorda | $18,687,351 | 70 | $266,962 |
Year over year change by percentage: Red showed a reduction in volume
| Volume | Counts | Average Price | |
| Bokeelia | 25.40% | 3.70% | 20.92% |
| Miromar Lakes | 17.05% | -6.58% | 25.29% |
| Estero | 12.71% | 15.73% | -2.61% |
| Cape Coral | 10.47% | 2.05% | 8.25% |
| Sanibel | 7.07% | 2.59% | 4.36% |
| Fort Myers Beach | 6.94% | 4.04% | 2.79% |
| Lehigh Acres | 5.47% | -5.98% | 12.18% |
| Fort Myers | 2.69% | 0.97% | 1.70% |
| St. James City | -2.08% | 1.99% | -3.98% |
| North Fort Myers | -2.47% | -6.32% | 4.11% |
| Bonita Springs | -5.16% | -7.10% | 2.09% |
| Punta Gorda | -11.46% | -6.67% | -5.14% |
| Captiva | -19.67% | 25.40% | -35.94% |
| Alva | -37.31% | -26.67% | -14.51% |
2018 Lee County Florida Market Update: Bubbles of sales Activity
2018 Lee County Florida Market Update: Hurricane Irma and the Market.
Quarter 1 thru Quarter 3:
2018 Lee County Florida Market Update: Volume and sales counts Q1 – Q3
| 2016 | 2017 | DIFF | |
|
Volume |
$4,085,225,713 | $4,394,239,255 |
7.56% |
| Counts | 14,937 | 15,152 |
1.44% |
2018 Lee County Florida Market Update: Pricing Q1 – Q3
| 2016 | 2017 | DIFF | |
|
Average |
$273,497 | $290,011 |
6.04% |
| Median | $205,000 | $220,000 |
7.32% |
2018 Lee County Florida Market Update: Quarter 4, Hurricane Irmas aftermath.
2018 Lee County Florida Market Update: Quarter 4
Sales counts and volume.
| 2016 | 2017 | DIFF | |
| Volume | $1,267,777,881 | $1,177,318,274 |
-7.14% |
|
Counts |
4,466 | 4,258 |
-4.66% |
Median and Average Pricing.
| 2016 | 2017 | DIFF | |
|
Average |
$283,873 | $276,496 |
-2.60% |
| Median | $212,000 | $217,000 |
2.36% |
The data shows that Hurricane Irma had an effect on the market. The bubbles charts show a reduction in the sales above $500,000. It does not take many of these price points to change the volume.
2018 Lee County Florida Market Update: Where are we at in this cycle?
We are correlating the last cycle from a retiree demographic standpoint but without the leverage driven mania that we experienced 200- 2006. We have a great demand than we did 2004-2006. We also appear to be growing a bit more checked. I attribute this due to the constraints in Dodd-Frank.
Things to watch for?
- Volume and pricing in season. We have a very early Easter (4/1/2018). This leads to a busy March and May/June.
- What effect do the millennia’s have on the market as they enter?
- Cape Coral lot metrics and permit growth?
- Dodd-Frank being repealed or watered down.
- When landlords can get an acceptable gain elsewhere. There is a lot of trapped equity. Rising interest rates could provide a destination for the trapped equity in the market.
- Rising Prices can provide a barrier for retirees.
- Workforce housing shortage?
- Tiny homes.
- New Fed Chief? Will they change velocity that rates are raised?
- True effect on the tax reform?
- Stock Market? What if it crashes? What if it does not?
- Cryptocurrency long-term trajectory and how mainstream does it become?
Stay tunbed and subscribe to our blog and or facebook page. We have an update coming from season and more work on the distressed, building permits and Cape Coral lot market.
Thanks for reading. Questions? Call 239 694 3300
Thinking of buying or selling? We would love to sit down and discuss your options.
Steelbridge Realty LLC is a Licensed Real Estate Brokerage that utilizes cutting-edge marketing techniques and data driven Real Estate solutions in today’s ever changing environment. Our group of professionals have decades of experience and have navigated through many business cycles. Our diverse background gives us the tools to guide people towards successful decisions.
During the beginning of the housing downturn, Steelbridge Realty LLC was the Brokerage arm of several private equity entities. We assisted them with asset modeling and market metrics. Many prominent local commercial projects were included in this scope of transactions. in 2012 Jeff and Cristina bought the other partner out and relocated the company to North Fort Myers. It now serves as a boutique style to firm cater to its clients and the community at large.
For more information call 239 694 3300 or use the form below.
Hits: 667
Pingback: 2018 Lee County Florida Market Update – Jeff Tumbarello