SWFL Real estate after Irma

Cleaning Up Property Damage

The case study SWFL Real estate after Irma was presented by Jeff Tumbarello, Broker Steelbridge Realty LLC/ Director SWFL REIA at the SWFL REIA luncheon in October.

Disclosure:

  • This presentation is meant to provide some guidance from a statistical point of view.
  • This is my work done for my use and shared with you.
  • All data exported from MLS and trended with Microsoft excel.
  • Data was exported on 10/4/2017

Real estate after Irma: First thing.

  • Hurricanes have long had an influence on the Florida Real Estate market.
  • The Florida Land Boom in the 20’s was finished off by the 1926 and 1928 hurricanes.

 

Real estate after Irma: Where is the market today?
Volume Jan thru Sept YTD
Lee County Residential

2016 2017 DIFF
Volume  $  4,084,576,398 $4,360,981,530 6.77%
Counts 14,934 15,024 0.60%

 

Real estate after Irma: Pricing
Jan thru September YTD
Lee County Residential

2016 2017 DIFF
Average  $273,509 $290,268 6.13%
Median  $205,000 $220,000 7.32%

 

Real Estate after Irma: Cash Sales Percentage.
Jan thru September YTD
Lee County Residential

2016 2017 DIFF
cash 6,308 6,171 -2.17%
Cash % 42.24% 41.07% -2.76%

 

Real Estate after Irma: September versus September Volume

2016 2017 DIFF
Volume  $385,989,908 $278,857,948 -27.76%
Counts 1,499 989 -34.02%

Real Estate after Irma: September versus September Pricing

2016 2017 DIFF
Average  $257,498 $281,960 9.50%
Median  $209,000 $225,000 7.66%

 

Here is what the year looks like.

Real Estate after Irma

Hurricane Charley:

  • Hurricane Charley made landfall in SWFL on 8/13/2004 near the island of Cayo Costa, Florida as a 150 mph (240 km/h) Category 4 hurricane
  • The real estate market was in a boom that was beginning to turn into a mania. Charley brought a lot of attention to the market, brought an influx of insurance money and reduced some inventory.

Real estate after Irma

 

Real estate after Irma

 

Hurricane Wilma:

  • Hurricane Wilma made landfall in Cape Romano, Florida on Monday, October 24, 2005.
  • Statistically, I can prove the SWFL Real Estate market had started divergence to the downside in August of 2005. Wilma caused people up north to pause. Rapidly rising prices compounded this.
  • Wilma really ended the manias demand. Leverage is what carried any momentum from there.

Real estate after Irma

Real estate after Irma: Some numbers of note.

  • August 2004 (Charley Landfall) sales were down -23.92% from the previous month.
  • October of 2005 (Wilma Landfall) sales were down -27.07% from the previous month.
  • September of 2017 (Irma’s landfall) sales was down -41.24% from the previous month.

Notes:

  • I am putting more weight on the trends from Charlie than Wilma due to the current trajectory of the market.
  • There are 1610 properties pending in Lee County from the last 60 days.
  • In the last 10 days, 453 properties have gone pending. (10/4/2017)

Where is the market today?
Collier County Residential Volume.

2016 2017 DIFF
Volume  $4,244,646,006 $4,683,933,70 10.35%
Counts 7,553 7,880 4.33%

 

Where is the market today?
Collier County Residential Pricing.

2016 2017 DIFF
Average  $561,981 $594,408 5.77%
Median  $326,150 $340,000 4.25%

Where is the market today?
Collier County Residential Cash Sales Percentage.

2016 2017 DIFF
Cash 3,813 4,083 7.08%
Cash % 50.48% 51.81% 2.64%

Where is the market today?
Collier County Residential Volume.
September Only.

2016 2017 DIFF
Volume  $      344,532,804 $231,008,708 -32.95%
Counts 700 422 -39.71%

Where is the market today?
Collier County Residential Pricing.
September Only

2016 2017 DIFF
Average  $              492,190 $547,414 11.22%
Median  $              320,000 $330,000 3.13%

 

Where is the market today?
Collier County Residential Cash Sales Percentage.
September Only

2016 2017 DIFF
Cash 332 211 -36.45%
Cash % 47.43% 50.00% 5.42%

 

Hurricane Charley Sales Counts Patterns for Collier.

Real estate after Irma

Real estate after Irma

 

Real Estate After Irma: Some Thoughts.

  • Irma will be a more significant event for Collier and Bonita.
  • Kudos to the new building codes. The new construction industry should benefit.
  • Older resales may have issues with sentiment going forward. Especially older waterfront resale’s.
  • Watching the pending thru February will be on my radar. As will the foreclosure filings.
  • There will be opportunities in the non-bank distressed market.
  • Insurance companies appear to have gotten better at mass events in relation to loss prevention. I have spoken with several people where the insurance company has “approved vendors”. This will have an effect on local contractors.

Real Estate After Irma: Foreclosures.

  • I have seen interviews with public and private individuals referring to a bump in the foreclosures.
  • You have to understand the timeline to understand the possible trends.
  • The earliest a foreclosure will be filed is roughly 90 days from today. Then you have generally a 6-month process.
  • Due to our high percentage of cash sales since 2009. It is unlikely to trigger a mass event like the end of the last cycle.

~ Stay tuned (subscribe and follow) for updates going forward.

Thinking of buying or selling? We would love to sit down and discuss your options.

 Steelbridge Realty LLC  is a Licensed Real Estate Brokerage that utilizes cutting-edge marketing techniques and data-driven Real Estate solutions in today’s ever-changing environment. Our group of professionals have decades of experience and have navigated through many business cycles. Our diverse background gives us the tools to guide people towards successful decisions.

During the beginning of the housing downturn, Steelbridge Realty LLC was the Brokerage arm of several private equity entities. We assisted them with asset modeling and market metrics. Many prominent local commercial projects were included in this scope of transactions. in 2012 Jeff and Cristina bought the other partner out and relocated the company to North Fort Myers. It now serves as a boutique style firm to cater to it clients and the community at large.

For more information call 239 694 3300 or use the form below.




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